The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
Launch prices are live. The code is applied at checkout: the launch price on your first term. See launch prices
Ends 31 October at 23:59 Amsterdam time
Coupon codeLAUNCH10%+ offEUR/USD fundamentals start with the interest rate differential: the euro’s policy rate is 2.5% and the US dollar’s 4%, a differential of −1.50 pp. After inflation, the real rate differential is −1.60 pp. EUR/USD last closed at 1.11437 at 05:00 UTC on 29 Oct 2026.
| Figure |  EUR |  USD | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 2.5% | 4% | −1.50 pp |
| Headline inflation, y/y | 3.8% (September 2026) | 3.7% (September 2026) | |
| Real policy rate | −1.30% | +0.30% | −1.60 pp |
| GDP, q/q | 0.6% | — | |
| Unemployment | 6.4% | 4.2% | |
| CFTC net position, leveraged funds | −68,840week of 20 Oct 2026 | +3,183week of 20 Oct 2026 |
The euro: policy rate from the European Central Bank; inflation, growth and unemployment from Eurostat.
The US dollar: policy rate from the Federal Reserve; inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Positioning is leveraged funds’ net contracts in each currency’s futures, from the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders. The price is the close of the pair’s last finished 15-minute bar. A real rate is the policy rate minus the latest headline inflation, and a differential is the EUR figure minus the USD one, in percentage points. A dash is a figure the source has not delivered.
