The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
The Sunday newsletter
Every Sunday, the Week Ahead teaser: last week’s calls and how they went, and one of this week’s, in time for Monday’s open.
Launch prices are live. The code is applied at checkout: the launch price on your first term. See launch prices
Ends 31 October at 23:59 Amsterdam time
Coupon codeLAUNCH10%+ offUSD/JPY fundamentals start with the interest rate differential: the US dollar’s policy rate is 4% and the Japanese yen’s 1.25%, a differential of +2.75 pp. After inflation, the real rate differential is +1.15 pp. USD/JPY last closed at 157.820 at 05:00 UTC on 29 Oct 2026.
| Figure |  USD |  JPY | Differential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Policy rate | 4% | 1.25% | +2.75 pp |
| Headline inflation, y/y | 3.7% (September 2026) | 2.1% (September 2026) | |
| Real policy rate | +0.30% | −0.85% | +1.15 pp |
| GDP, q/q | — | 0.4% | |
| Unemployment | 4.2% | 2.5% | |
| CFTC net position, leveraged funds | +3,183week of 20 Oct 2026 | −22,890week of 20 Oct 2026 |
The US dollar: policy rate from the Federal Reserve; inflation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; growth from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; unemployment from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Japanese yen: policy rate from the Bank of Japan; inflation and unemployment from Japan’s Statistics Bureau; growth from Japan’s Cabinet Office.
Positioning is leveraged funds’ net contracts in each currency’s futures, from the CFTC’s weekly Commitments of Traders. The price is the close of the pair’s last finished 15-minute bar. A real rate is the policy rate minus the latest headline inflation, and a differential is the USD figure minus the JPY one, in percentage points. A dash is a figure the source has not delivered.
