USD/CAD Interest Rate Differential
The current policy-rate gap between US Dollar and Canadian Dollar, and which side of USD/CAD earns the carry. Updated daily · as of June 18, 2026.
US Dollar carries the higher policy rate, so going long USD/CAD earns positive carry (swap); the opposite side pays it.
This is the current gap. The market trades the expected differential, which can move USD/CAD before any rate change lands.
Go deeper
All interest rate differentials
The full matrix and carry calculator for every major.
The Carry Trade
How the differential becomes a daily swap, and why it crashes.
US Dollar rate decision
The schedule and results that move the USD leg.
Canadian Dollar rate decision
The schedule and results that move the CAD leg.
USD/CAD carry — frequently asked
What is the USD/CAD interest rate differential?
The USD/CAD interest rate differential is currently +1.50 pp — the US Dollar policy rate (3.75%) minus the Canadian Dollar policy rate (2.25%). US Dollar carries the higher rate, so it tends to attract demand.
Does long USD/CAD earn or pay swap (carry)?
Going long USD/CAD earns positive carry, paid as the daily swap (rollover), because that side holds the higher-yielding currency (US Dollar). The opposite side pays the swap. Carry is simply the interest-rate differential turned into a daily cash flow.
Why does the expected USD/CAD differential matter more than today's?
Markets price the future, not the present. USD/CAD can move on a widening or narrowing expected differential before any actual rate change, as new data and central-bank guidance shift the expected paths of the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar central banks. Today's gap is largely already priced in.
Does the higher-yielding side of USD/CAD always go up?
No. The rate differential is gravity, not a guarantee. It dominates in calm, risk-on conditions, but in a risk-off shock capital rushes to safe havens regardless of yield, and crowded carry positions can unwind violently.