Next release
Released 8 times per yearJul 23, 2026 12:15 UTC
in 32 days
Latest result
The most recent ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jun 11, 2026) printed 2.40% versus 2.4% expected (previous 2.15%) — in line with forecast.
What it measures
This is the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates for the 20 countries that share the euro, eight times a year, followed by a press conference. The decision is usually expected, so the euro reacts more to the hints about what comes next. Two things set the ECB apart: its only job is to control inflation, with no duty to protect jobs, and it must set one rate for many very different economies at once.
Higher rates, or a hint that more are coming, tend to lift the euro because they reward holding it, while cuts or a softer tone weaken it. But the ECB has its own tells. It watches services inflation most, rather than the headline rate, so a surprise pickup there is the clearest sign it may turn tougher, sometimes enough to lift the euro even while it is still cutting. It also leans on its own economists' forecasts as much as on the latest data, so a revision to those forecasts is often the real signal. And one risk is unique to the euro: because it is shared by strong countries like Germany and weaker ones like Italy, a widening gap between what Italy and Germany pay to borrow warns that the bloc could crack, and that can pull the euro down even when rates would normally hold it up.
What a higher or lower ECB Interest Rate Decision means for the EUR
A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the EUR.
Higher than forecast
An actual above the consensus forecast is typically bullish for the EUR.
Lower than forecast
An actual below the consensus forecast is typically bearish for the EUR.
Release history
Every release of ECB Interest Rate Decision: actual vs forecast and the beat/miss outcome. Click a date for the full read of that release.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 11, 2026 | 2.40% | 2.4% | 2.15% | inline |
| Apr 30, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Sep 11, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Jul 24, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.15% | inline |
| Jun 5, 2025 | 2.15% | 2.15% | 2.4% | inline |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 2.4% | 2.40% | 2.65% | inline |
| Mar 6, 2025 | 2.65% | 2.65% | 2.9% | inline |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.15% | inline |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 3.15% | 3.15% | 3.4% | inline |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.65% | inline |
| Sep 12, 2024 | 3.65% | 3.65% | 4.25% | inline |
| Jul 18, 2024 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.25% | inline |
| Jun 6, 2024 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4.5% | inline |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | inline |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | inline |
| Jan 25, 2024 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | inline |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | inline |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | inline |
| Sep 14, 2023 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 4.25% | inline |
| Jul 27, 2023 | 4.25% | 4.25% | 4% | inline |
| Jun 15, 2023 | 4% | 4.0% | 3.75% | inline |
| May 4, 2023 | 3.75% | 3.75% | 3.5% | inline |
| Mar 16, 2023 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3% | inline |
| Feb 2, 2023 | 3% | 3.0% | 2.5% | inline |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2% | inline |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 2% | 2% | 1.25% | inline |
| Sep 8, 2022 | 1.25% | 1.25% | 0.5% | inline |
| Jul 21, 2022 | 0.5% | 0.25% | 0% | above |
| Jun 9, 2022 | 0% | 0% | 0% | inline |
| Apr 14, 2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | inline |
| Mar 10, 2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | inline |
| Feb 3, 2022 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | inline |
| Dec 16, 2021 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | inline |
Frequently asked questions
- What is ECB Interest Rate Decision?
- This is the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates for the 20 countries that share the euro, eight times a year, followed by a press conference. The decision is usually expected, so the euro reacts more to the hints about what comes next. Two things set the ECB apart: its only job is to control inflation, with no duty to protect jobs, and it must set one rate for many very different economies at once.
- What was the latest ECB Interest Rate Decision reading?
- The most recent release (Jun 11, 2026) came in at 2.40%, versus a forecast of 2.4% and a previous 2.15% — in line with expectations.
- When is the next ECB Interest Rate Decision?
- The next ECB Interest Rate Decision is scheduled for Jul 23, 2026. It is released 8 times per year.
- What happens to the EUR if ECB Interest Rate Decision is higher than expected?
- An actual reading above the consensus forecast is typically bullish for the EUR, while a reading below forecast is bearish for the EUR. A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the EUR.
- How does ECB Interest Rate Decision affect the EUR?
- Higher rates, or a hint that more are coming, tend to lift the euro because they reward holding it, while cuts or a softer tone weaken it. But the ECB has its own tells. It watches services inflation most, rather than the headline rate, so a surprise pickup there is the clearest sign it may turn tougher, sometimes enough to lift the euro even while it is still cutting. It also leans on its own economists' forecasts as much as on the latest data, so a revision to those forecasts is often the real signal. And one risk is unique to the euro: because it is shared by strong countries like Germany and weaker ones like Italy, a widening gap between what Italy and Germany pay to borrow warns that the bloc could crack, and that can pull the euro down even when rates would normally hold it up.