Next release
Released monthlyJul 2, 2026 12:30 UTC
in 11 days
Latest result
The most recent US Unemployment Rate (Jun 5, 2026, May) printed 4.3% versus 4.4% expected (previous 4.3%) — below forecast, positive for the USD.
What it measures
This is the share of Americans who want a job and are actively looking but cannot find one, released on the same day as the payrolls report. It is one half of the Federal Reserve's job, alongside controlling inflation, so a rising rate gets its full attention. Traders compare it to the forecast and watch the direction over several months.
The Fed has to balance inflation against jobs, and higher rates reward holding the dollar, so the unemployment rate matters through what it implies for rates. A lower rate signals a strong jobs market that lets the Fed stay tight, which tends to support the dollar, while a rising rate brings rate cuts to protect jobs into view and tends to weaken it. The market watches the trend more than one month: a climb of around half a percentage point from its recent low is treated as the line where the jobs market stops merely cooling and starts cracking, a strong signal for cuts and a softer dollar. Because it lands beside the payrolls headline, the two are read together, and a weak payrolls number alongside a rising unemployment rate is a clearly soft combination.
What a higher or lower US Unemployment Rate means for the USD
A higher-than-expected reading here signals weakness (or easier policy ahead), which tends to weigh on the USD.
Higher than forecast
An actual above the 4.50% forecast is typically bearish for the USD.
Lower than forecast
An actual below the 4.50% forecast is typically bullish for the USD.
Release history
Every release of US Unemployment Rate: actual vs forecast and the beat/miss outcome. Click a date for the full read of that release.
| Release | Actual | Forecast | Previous | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 · May | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | below |
| May 8, 2026 · Apr | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.3% | inline |
| Apr 3, 2026 · Mar | 4.3% | 4.50% | 4.4% | below |
| Mar 6, 2026 · Feb | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | above |
| Feb 11, 2026 · Jan | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.4% | below |
| Nov 20, 2025 · Sep | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.3% | above |
| Sep 5, 2025 · Aug | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | above |
| Aug 1, 2025 · Jul | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | inline |
| Jul 3, 2025 · Jun | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | below |
| Jun 6, 2025 · May | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | inline |
| May 2, 2025 · Apr | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.2% | inline |
| Apr 4, 2025 · Mar | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.1% | inline |
| Mar 7, 2025 · Feb | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4% | above |
| Feb 7, 2025 · Jan | 4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | below |
| Jan 10, 2025 · Dec | 4.1% | 4.30% | 4.2% | below |
| Dec 6, 2024 · Nov | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.1% | above |
| Nov 1, 2024 · Oct | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | below |
| Oct 4, 2024 · Sep | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.2% | below |
| Sep 6, 2024 · Aug | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.3% | below |
| Aug 2, 2024 · Jul | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.1% | above |
| Jul 5, 2024 · Jun | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4% | above |
| Jun 7, 2024 · May | 4% | 3.9% | 3.9% | above |
| May 3, 2024 · Apr | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | above |
| Apr 5, 2024 · Mar | 3.8% | 3.9% | 3.9% | below |
| Mar 8, 2024 · Feb | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.7% | above |
| Feb 2, 2024 · Jan | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.7% | inline |
| Jan 5, 2024 · Dec | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.7% | below |
| Dec 8, 2023 · Nov | 3.7% | 3.9% | 3.9% | below |
| Nov 3, 2023 · Oct | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.8% | above |
| Oct 6, 2023 · Sep | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | inline |
| Sep 1, 2023 · Aug | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | above |
| Aug 4, 2023 · Jul | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.6% | below |
| Jul 7, 2023 · Jun | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | below |
| Jun 2, 2023 · May | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.4% | above |
| May 5, 2023 · Apr | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.5% | below |
| Apr 7, 2023 · Mar | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.6% | inline |
Frequently asked questions
- What is US Unemployment Rate?
- This is the share of Americans who want a job and are actively looking but cannot find one, released on the same day as the payrolls report. It is one half of the Federal Reserve's job, alongside controlling inflation, so a rising rate gets its full attention. Traders compare it to the forecast and watch the direction over several months.
- What was the latest US Unemployment Rate reading?
- The most recent release (Jun 5, 2026, May) came in at 4.3%, versus a forecast of 4.4% and a previous 4.3% — below expectations.
- When is the next US Unemployment Rate?
- The next US Unemployment Rate is scheduled for Jul 2, 2026. It is released monthly.
- What happens to the USD if US Unemployment Rate is higher than expected?
- An actual reading above the consensus forecast is typically bearish for the USD, while a reading below forecast is bullish for the USD. A higher-than-expected reading here signals weakness (or easier policy ahead), which tends to weigh on the USD.
- How does US Unemployment Rate affect the USD?
- The Fed has to balance inflation against jobs, and higher rates reward holding the dollar, so the unemployment rate matters through what it implies for rates. A lower rate signals a strong jobs market that lets the Fed stay tight, which tends to support the dollar, while a rising rate brings rate cuts to protect jobs into view and tends to weaken it. The market watches the trend more than one month: a climb of around half a percentage point from its recent low is treated as the line where the jobs market stops merely cooling and starts cracking, a strong signal for cuts and a softer dollar. Because it lands beside the payrolls headline, the two are read together, and a weak payrolls number alongside a rising unemployment rate is a clearly soft combination.