US PCE Price Index

What it measures

The PCE Price Index is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve officially targets at 2 percent, measuring how fast the prices Americans actually pay are rising over the past year. It differs from the better known consumer price index because it captures a wider basket and adjusts for how people shift their spending when prices change, which is why the Fed prefers it. Traders also watch the core version, which strips out food and energy to show the steadier underlying trend the Fed steers by.

The dollar moves first on the Fed's rate path, and higher rates reward holding it, so the gauge the Fed formally targets carries real weight even though it lands later in the month than the consumer price index, which already tipped the market off. A reading hotter than expected points to stickier inflation and a Fed in no hurry to cut, supporting the dollar, while a cooler reading opens the door to cuts and weakens it. Because the consumer price index for the same month is usually out first, much of the surprise is already priced, so the reaction is often smaller than the headline status suggests. The part traders zero in on is the core measure and its month to month pace, since that is what tells the Fed whether progress toward 2 percent is real. The Fed's dual mandate means it will look past slightly high inflation if the job market is clearly weakening, so the response is sharpest when hot prices meet a still solid labor market.

What a higher or lower US PCE Price Index means for the USD

A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the USD.

Release history

Every release of US PCE Price Index: actual vs forecast and the beat/miss outcome. Click a date for the full read of that release.

Frequently asked questions

What is US PCE Price Index?

The PCE Price Index is the inflation gauge the Federal Reserve officially targets at 2 percent, measuring how fast the prices Americans actually pay are rising over the past year. It differs from the better known consumer price index because it captures a wider basket and adjusts for how people shift their spending when prices change, which is why the Fed prefers it. Traders also watch the core version, which strips out food and energy to show the steadier underlying trend the Fed steers by.

What was the latest US PCE Price Index reading?

The most recent release (May 28, 2026, Apr) came in at 3.8%, versus a forecast of 3.8% and a previous 3.5% — in line with expectations.

When is the next US PCE Price Index?

The next US PCE Price Index is scheduled for Jun 25, 2026. It is released monthly.

What happens to the USD if US PCE Price Index is higher than expected?

An actual reading above the consensus forecast is typically bullish for the USD, while a reading below forecast is bearish for the USD. A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the USD.

How does US PCE Price Index affect the USD?

The dollar moves first on the Fed's rate path, and higher rates reward holding it, so the gauge the Fed formally targets carries real weight even though it lands later in the month than the consumer price index, which already tipped the market off. A reading hotter than expected points to stickier inflation and a Fed in no hurry to cut, supporting the dollar, while a cooler reading opens the door to cuts and weakens it. Because the consumer price index for the same month is usually out first, much of the surprise is already priced, so the reaction is often smaller than the headline status suggests. The part traders zero in on is the core measure and its month to month pace, since that is what tells the Fed whether progress toward 2 percent is real. The Fed's dual mandate means it will look past slightly high inflation if the job market is clearly weakening, so the response is sharpest when hot prices meet a still solid labor market.

Other releases