USD · Monetary Policy

Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC)

Next release: Jul 29, 2026

Next release

Released 8 times per year

Jul 29, 2026 18:00 UTC

in 38 days

Consensus forecast
3.75%
Previous
3.75%

Latest result

The most recent Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) (Jun 17, 2026) printed 3.75% versus 3.75% expected (previous 3.75%) — in line with forecast.

What it measures

This is the moment the Federal Reserve, which sets US interest rates, announces its decision, eight times a year. The rate shapes borrowing costs across the whole economy and is the biggest single influence on the dollar. The decision itself is usually guessed correctly in advance, so the dollar reacts more to the clues about what comes next: the statement, the press conference, and, four times a year, the "dot plot," a chart where each official marks where they expect rates to go.

Interest rates are the main thing that moves a currency, because higher rates reward holding it and draw money in, so a rate rise or a hint of more to come tends to lift the dollar, while a cut or a softer tone weakens it. The catch is that the move itself is usually already expected, so the dollar really reacts to the tone and the dot plot. If officials point to fewer cuts ahead, or sound more worried about inflation than about jobs, the dollar tends to rise, and if they sound more relaxed it tends to fall. Today's Fed has signalled it would rather tolerate slightly high inflation than risk a recession, so traders often lean toward expecting cuts unless inflation forces its hand. There is also a quieter factor: when the committee is deeply divided, or its independence looks under pressure, that alone can unsettle the dollar even when the decision is exactly as expected.

What a higher or lower Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) means for the USD

A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the USD.

Higher than forecast

An actual above the 3.75% forecast is typically bullish for the USD.

Lower than forecast

An actual below the 3.75% forecast is typically bearish for the USD.

Release history

Every release of Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC): actual vs forecast and the beat/miss outcome. Click a date for the full read of that release.

ReleaseActualForecastPreviousOutcome
Jun 17, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%inline
Apr 29, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%inline
Mar 18, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%inline
Jan 28, 20263.75%3.75%3.75%inline
Oct 29, 20254.0%4.0%4.25%inline
Sep 17, 20254.25%4.25%4.5%inline
Jul 30, 20254.5%4.5%4.5%inline
Jun 18, 20254.5%4.5%4.5%inline
May 7, 20254.5%4.5%4.5%inline
Mar 19, 20254.5%4.5%4.5%inline
Jan 29, 20254.5%4.5%4.5%inline
Dec 18, 20244.5%4.5%4.75%inline
Nov 7, 20244.75%4.75%5%inline
Sep 18, 20245%5.25%5.5%below
Jun 12, 20245.5%5.5%5.5%inline
May 1, 20245.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Mar 20, 20245.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Jan 31, 20245.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Dec 13, 20235.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Nov 1, 20235.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Sep 20, 20235.5%5.5%5.5%inline
Jul 26, 20235.5%5.5%5.25%inline
Jun 14, 20235.25%5.25%5.25%inline
May 3, 20235.25%5.25%5%inline
Mar 22, 20235.0%5.0%4.75%inline
Feb 1, 20234.75%4.75%4.5%inline
Dec 14, 20224.5%4.5%4%inline
Nov 2, 20224%4%3.25%inline
Sep 21, 20223.25%3.25%2.5%inline
Jul 27, 20222.5%2.5%1.75%inline
Jun 15, 20221.75%1.75%1%inline
May 4, 20221%1%0.5%inline
Mar 16, 20220.5%0.5%0.25%inline
Jan 26, 20220.25%0.25%0.25%inline
Dec 15, 20210.25%0.25%0.25%inline
Nov 3, 20210.25%0.25%0.25%inline

Frequently asked questions

What is Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC)?
This is the moment the Federal Reserve, which sets US interest rates, announces its decision, eight times a year. The rate shapes borrowing costs across the whole economy and is the biggest single influence on the dollar. The decision itself is usually guessed correctly in advance, so the dollar reacts more to the clues about what comes next: the statement, the press conference, and, four times a year, the "dot plot," a chart where each official marks where they expect rates to go.
What was the latest Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) reading?
The most recent release (Jun 17, 2026) came in at 3.75%, versus a forecast of 3.75% and a previous 3.75% — in line with expectations.
When is the next Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC)?
The next Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) is scheduled for Jul 29, 2026. It is released 8 times per year.
What happens to the USD if Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) is higher than expected?
An actual reading above the consensus forecast is typically bullish for the USD, while a reading below forecast is bearish for the USD. A stronger-than-expected reading points to a more resilient economy or higher-for-longer rates, which tends to draw capital into the USD.
How does Fed Interest Rate Decision (FOMC) affect the USD?
Interest rates are the main thing that moves a currency, because higher rates reward holding it and draw money in, so a rate rise or a hint of more to come tends to lift the dollar, while a cut or a softer tone weakens it. The catch is that the move itself is usually already expected, so the dollar really reacts to the tone and the dot plot. If officials point to fewer cuts ahead, or sound more worried about inflation than about jobs, the dollar tends to rise, and if they sound more relaxed it tends to fall. Today's Fed has signalled it would rather tolerate slightly high inflation than risk a recession, so traders often lean toward expecting cuts unless inflation forces its hand. There is also a quieter factor: when the committee is deeply divided, or its independence looks under pressure, that alone can unsettle the dollar even when the decision is exactly as expected.

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