USD/JPY Interest Rate Differential
The current policy-rate gap between US Dollar and Japanese Yen, and which side of USD/JPY earns the carry. Updated daily · as of June 18, 2026.
US Dollar carries the higher policy rate, so going long USD/JPY earns positive carry (swap); the opposite side pays it.
This is the current gap. The market trades the expected differential, which can move USD/JPY before any rate change lands.
Go deeper
All interest rate differentials
The full matrix and carry calculator for every major.
The Carry Trade
How the differential becomes a daily swap, and why it crashes.
US Dollar rate decision
The schedule and results that move the USD leg.
Japanese Yen rate decision
The schedule and results that move the JPY leg.
USD/JPY carry — frequently asked
What is the USD/JPY interest rate differential?
The USD/JPY interest rate differential is currently +2.75 pp — the US Dollar policy rate (3.75%) minus the Japanese Yen policy rate (1.00%). US Dollar carries the higher rate, so it tends to attract demand.
Does long USD/JPY earn or pay swap (carry)?
Going long USD/JPY earns positive carry, paid as the daily swap (rollover), because that side holds the higher-yielding currency (US Dollar). The opposite side pays the swap. Carry is simply the interest-rate differential turned into a daily cash flow.
Why does the expected USD/JPY differential matter more than today's?
Markets price the future, not the present. USD/JPY can move on a widening or narrowing expected differential before any actual rate change, as new data and central-bank guidance shift the expected paths of the US Dollar and Japanese Yen central banks. Today's gap is largely already priced in.
Does the higher-yielding side of USD/JPY always go up?
No. The rate differential is gravity, not a guarantee. It dominates in calm, risk-on conditions, but in a risk-off shock capital rushes to safe havens regardless of yield, and crowded carry positions can unwind violently.